基于概率图模型的危险驾驶罪刑期预测

针对司法实践中对于可解释性及预测性能的需求, 本文提出了一种基于概率图模型的量刑智能辅助方法. 该方法以量刑要素为基石建立含有隐节点的概率图模型, 由极大似然准则估计刑期分布的参数, 进而计算分布的数学期望得到预测值. 关于危险驾驶罪的实验结果表明, 概率图模型的预测准确率优于基于决策树和神经网络等的模型, 且具有良好的可解释性.     

基于EMD能量占比的海面漂浮小目标特征检测

针对传统的时频分析方法对海杂波分析有限的问题，提出一种基于经验模态分解(empirical mode decomposition, EMD)能量占比的海面漂浮小目标特征检测方法。首先，采用EMD将接收回波分为独立不同尺度的若干个固有模态(intrinsic mode function, IMF)分量，实现对接收回波的频率从高频到低频的分解。然后，分别建立IMF分量与接收回波数据的相关系数，并利用平均均值-标准差之比作为筛选IMF分量的准则，自动筛选出能量较大且波动平稳的低阶IMF分量。最后，提取IMF分量在原始信号中的平均能量占比作为特征，利用蒙特卡罗方法设置门限，进行海面目标异常检测。实测数据的结果显示，所提算法的性能优于对比算法。     

Dielectric relaxation and conduction mechanism in Aurivillius ceramic Bi5Ti3FeO15

For this study, we synthesized Aurivillius Bi5Ti3FeO15 ceramic using the generic solid-state reaction route and then performed room-temperature X-ray diffraction to confirm that the compound had a single phase with no impurities. The surface morphology of the prepared sample was observed to contain microstructural grains approximately 0.2–2 μm in size. The dielectric properties of the sample were determ-ined as a function of frequency in a range of approximately 100 Hz to 1 MHz at various temperatures (303 K ≤ T ≤ 773 K). Nyquist plots of the impedance data were found to exhibit a semi-circular arc in the high-temperature region, which is explained by the equivalent electrical circuit (R1C1)(R2QC2), where R1 and R2 represent the resistances associated with the grains and grain boundaries, respectively, C1 and C2 are the re-spective capacitances, and Q is the constant phase element (CPE), which accounts for non-Debye type of behavior. Our results indicate that both the resistance and capacitance of the grain boundaries are more prominent than those of the grains. The alternating current (ac) conductiv-ity data were analyzed based on the Jonscher universal power law, which indicated that the conduction process is dominated by the hopping mechanism. The calculated activation energies of the relaxation and conduction processes were very similar (0.32 to 0.53 eV), from which we conclude that the same type of charge carriers are involved in both processes.     

同城即时配送问题基于多预测场景的在线调度

同城即时配送是随现代电子商务而产生的新问题,该问题呈现出极强的动态性与求解时间的紧迫性,并具有商户与顾客一对多的关系、车辆需要多次往返商户取货、货物取送有时效要求等诸多新特征,无法依赖现有研究而求解.针对这一问题,建立了基于多预测场景的在线优化调度方法,将带有预测订单的多个场景整合到路线规划过程,通过每个场景的方案计算,以及多场景方案的整合,得到了车辆赖以运行的集成方案,提高了调度方案面对未来不确定需求的适应性;所建立的调度系统在新订单进入时立即响应,在系统闲置时则采用大邻域搜索技术不断优化未完成的任务方案.最后,在具有200～300个日订单的大连市某同城即时配送公司的真实数据上,验证了在线调度方法的有效性和可行性.     

基于退化特征相似性的航空发动机寿命预测

针对航空发动机结构复杂、性能退化参数众多、寿命预测精度低等问题,提出了一种基于退化特征相似性的寿命预测方法。首先通过基于Relief算法的退化特征筛选、基于主成分分析(principal component analysis,PCA)的特征提取和基于核函数的特征平滑,提取低维正交多变量退化特征;然后进行特征的相似性匹配,寻找与当前样本特征片段最相似的一组历史样本中的特征片段集合,将这些片段对应的RUL信息融合并采用密度加权方法得到当前样本的寿命预测估计值;最后通〖JP2〗过美国国家航空航天局(national aeronautics and space administration,NASA)提供的航空涡轮扇发动机仿真数据集验证了该方法的有效性,其寿命预测性能高于现有几种代表性方法。     

The total cost of misclassification in credit scoring: A comparison of generalized linear models and generalized additive models

This study examines whether the evaluation of a bankruptcy prediction model should take into account the total cost of misclassification. For this purpose, we introduce and apply a validity measure in credit scoring that is based on the total cost of misclassification. Specifically, we use comprehensive data from the annual financial statements of a sample of German companies and analyze the total cost of misclassification by comparing a generalized linear model and a generalized additive model with regard to their ability to predict a company's probability of default. On the basis of these data, the validity measure we introduce shows that, compared to generalized linear models, generalized additive models can reduce substantially the extent of misclassification and the total cost that this entails. The validity measure we introduce is informative and justifies the argument that generalized additive models should be preferred, although such models are more complex than generalized linear models. We conclude that to balance a model's validity and complexity, it is necessary to take into account the total cost of misclassification.     

Exendin-4螺旋结构对生物活性及稳定性的影响

针对Exendin-4的螺旋结构特点, 采用去掉螺旋序列、 用3个连续Ala替换螺旋以及Gln13替换为Tyr13的方式对N端α-螺旋及C端α-螺旋进行改造, 设计出4个结构模拟物. 通过圆二光谱和荧光光谱进行结构分析, 结合模拟物生物活性实验, 分析Exendin-4螺旋结构与生物活性的关系. 结果表明：  Exendin-4的N端螺旋比C端螺旋对生物活性影响更大； 在抗二肽基肽酶（DPPⅣ酶）的稳定性实验中, C端螺旋比N端螺旋具有更好维系Exendin-4稳定性的作用； 螺旋结构中Tyr13可作为提高Exendin-4生物活性的重要优化位点.     

峰值电量约束下的场桥能耗最小化问题研究

随着化石能源的大量使用带来的环境污染问题日益严峻,关注能源使用效率的集装箱港口绿色化运营研究成为近年来的热点之一.本文以集装箱堆场中需要执行预倒箱作业的场桥为研究对象,考虑场桥不同运行状态下的单位时间电量需求不同以及峰值电量实时约束,建立了以总能耗最小化为目标的多场桥调度问题的混合整数规划数学模型.继而,将关键变量利用非连续贝和连续贝两种不同的方式进行编码,将次级变量利用启发式规则进行解码,并设计了相对应的遗传算法交叉与变异方法.数值实验表明,连续贝编码方法表现更为优异;通过与Cplex在小规模算例中的比较,与粒子群算法及人工蜂群算法在大规模算例中的比较,验证了所设计遗传算法的有效性.同时,通过与传统策略的对比,表明本模型可以同时实现能耗总需求与峰值需求两方面的优化,从而可以为港口管理人员在不影响既定日常运营工作的前提下降低能源成本提供科学有效的指导.     

Superior corrosion resistance-dependent laser energy density in(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 high entropy alloy coating fabricated by laser cladding

(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 high entropy alloy(HEA)coatings were successfully fabricated on a substrate of Q235 steel by laser cladding technology.These(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coatings possess excellent properties,particularly corrosion resistance,which is clearly superior to that of some typical bulk HEA and common engineering alloys.In order to obtain appropriate laser cladding preparation process parameters,the effects of laser energy density on the microstructure,microhardness,and corrosion resistance of(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coating were closely studied.Results showed that as the laser energy density increases,precipitation of the Laves phase in(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coating gradually decreases,and diffusion of the Fe element in the substrate intensifies,affecting the integrity of the(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA.This decreases the microhardness of(CoCrFeNi)95Nb5 HEA coatings.Moreover,the relative content of Cr2O3,Cr(OH)3,and Nb2O5 in the surface passive film of the coating decreases with increasing energy density,causing corrosion resistance to decrease.This study demonstrates the controllability of a high-performance HEA coating using laser cladding technology,which has significance for the laser cladding preparation of other CoCrFeNi-system HEA coatings.     

I ain’t afraid of no ghost

This paper criticizes the traditional philosophical account of the quantization of gauge theories and offers an alternative. On the received view, gauge theories resist quantization because they feature distinct mathematical representatives of the same physical state of affairs. This resistance is overcome by a sequence of ad hoc modifications, justified in part by reference to semiclassical electrodynamics. Among other things, these modifications introduce ”ghosts”: particles with unphysical properties which do not appear in asymptotic states and which are said to be purely a notational convenience. I argue that this sequence of modifications is unjustified and inadequate, making it a poor basis for the interpretation of ghosts. I then argue that gauge theories can be quantized by the same method as any other theory. On this account, ghosts are not purely notation: they are coordinates on the classical configuration space of the theory—specifically, on its gauge structure. This interpretation does not fall prey to the standard philosophical arguments against the significance of ghosts, due to Weingard. Weingard’s argumentative strategy, properly applied, in fact tells in favor of ghosts’ physical significance.